Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Why would Syria bomb Iraq?

  • ISIS wants to create an Islamic state across Sunni areas of Iraq and Syria
  • Syrian response to ISIS inside its borders has been fairly muted until now
  • But Syrian regime bombed ISIS positions in Syria recently and reportedly bombed in Iraq

(CNN) -- Syrian warplanes reportedly targeted Iraq this week. Scores of civilians were killed at markets and gas stations in Anbar province Tuesday, local leaders told CNN.

A militant group called ISIS, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, has been pushing into Iraq, shaking the country, its leadership and, in turn, threatening the region. But what does it mean that Syria reportedly is now attacking its neighbor?

Here are some answers to get you up to speed:

What does ISIS want, and how it that related to Iraq and Syria?

Did U.S. leave vacuum for Iran, Syria?
America's unlikely helping hand in Iraq
Old tanks defend Baghdad against ISIS
Female Peshmerga, or Kurdish warriors, between 18 and 45 years old form a special unit that is called to serve in any conditions. A soldier is pictured here on Wednesday, June 25. Vast swaths of northern Iraq, including the cities of Mosul and Tal Afar, have fallen as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, advances toward Baghdad, the capital. The ISIS militants want to establish a caliphate, or Islamic state, in the region, stretching from Iraq into northern Syria.Female Peshmerga, or Kurdish warriors, between 18 and 45 years old form a special unit that is called to serve in any conditions. A soldier is pictured here on Wednesday, June 25. Vast swaths of northern Iraq, including the cities of Mosul and Tal Afar, have fallen as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, advances toward Baghdad, the capital. The ISIS militants want to establish a caliphate, or Islamic state, in the region, stretching from Iraq into northern Syria.
A woman gathers bread in a temporary displacement camp for Iraqis caught up in the fighting in and around Mosul on Tuesday, June 24. A woman gathers bread in a temporary displacement camp for Iraqis caught up in the fighting in and around Mosul on Tuesday, June 24.
An ISIS fighter takes control of a traffic intersection in Mosul on Sunday, June 22. An ISIS fighter takes control of a traffic intersection in Mosul on Sunday, June 22.
An ISIS member distributes a copy of the Quran, Islam's holy book, to a driver in Mosul on June 22. An ISIS member distributes a copy of the Quran, Islam's holy book, to a driver in Mosul on June 22.
Members of ISIS patrol in Falluja, 40 miles west of Baghdad, on Saturday, June 21. Members of ISIS patrol in Falluja, 40 miles west of Baghdad, on Saturday, June 21.
Volunteers raise their weapons and chant slogans during a parade in the Shiite stronghold of Sadr City, Baghdad, on Saturday, June 21. Volunteers raise their weapons and chant slogans during a parade in the Shiite stronghold of Sadr City, Baghdad, on Saturday, June 21.
Iraqi men register to volunteer to fight alongside security forces against Sunni Muslim militants and jihadists on Friday, June 20, at a recruitment center in Baghdad.Iraqi men register to volunteer to fight alongside security forces against Sunni Muslim militants and jihadists on Friday, June 20, at a recruitment center in Baghdad.
New Iraqi army recruits gather in Najaf on Wednesday, June 18, following a call for Iraqis to take up arms against Islamic militant fighters. New Iraqi army recruits gather in Najaf on Wednesday, June 18, following a call for Iraqis to take up arms against Islamic militant fighters.
Soldiers with an Iraqi anti-terrorism unit are on guard June 18 in Baghdad.Soldiers with an Iraqi anti-terrorism unit are on guard June 18 in Baghdad.
A Kurdish Peshmerga fighter injured in clashes with members of ISIS lies in a hospital in Irbil on June 18.A Kurdish Peshmerga fighter injured in clashes with members of ISIS lies in a hospital in Irbil on June 18.
An MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter lands on the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush in the Persian Gulf on Tuesday, June 17. The carrier moved into the region to give President Barack Obama "additional flexibility," the Pentagon has said.An MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter lands on the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush in the Persian Gulf on Tuesday, June 17. The carrier moved into the region to give President Barack Obama "additional flexibility," the Pentagon has said.
Newly recruited Iraqi volunteer fighters take part in a training session in Karbala on June 17.Newly recruited Iraqi volunteer fighters take part in a training session in Karbala on June 17.
Iraqi tribesmen gather in Baghdad on Monday, June 16, to show their readiness to join Iraqi security forces in the fight against Islamic militants.Iraqi tribesmen gather in Baghdad on Monday, June 16, to show their readiness to join Iraqi security forces in the fight against Islamic militants.
Iraqi Christian children gather inside the Church of the Virgin Mary for prayers in Bartala, Iraq, a town near Mosul, on Sunday, June 15. Militants seized Mosul last week, reportedly leading more than 500,000 people to flee Iraq's second-largest city.Iraqi Christian children gather inside the Church of the Virgin Mary for prayers in Bartala, Iraq, a town near Mosul, on Sunday, June 15. Militants seized Mosul last week, reportedly leading more than 500,000 people to flee Iraq's second-largest city.
Shiite tribal fighters raise their weapons and chant slogans against ISIS in Basra, Iraq, on June 15. Shiite tribal fighters raise their weapons and chant slogans against ISIS in Basra, Iraq, on June 15.
Members of ISIS prepare to execute some soldiers from Iraq's security forces in this image, one of many reportedly posted by the militant group online. CNN cannot independently confirm the authenticity of the images.Members of ISIS prepare to execute some soldiers from Iraq's security forces in this image, one of many reportedly posted by the militant group online. CNN cannot independently confirm the authenticity of the images.
A woman cradles her baby Thursday, June 12, at a temporary camp set up in Aski Kalak, Iraq, to shelter those fleeing the violence in northern Nineveh province.A woman cradles her baby Thursday, June 12, at a temporary camp set up in Aski Kalak, Iraq, to shelter those fleeing the violence in northern Nineveh province.
A girl fleeing from Mosul arrives at a Kurdish checkpoint on June 12.A girl fleeing from Mosul arrives at a Kurdish checkpoint on June 12.
Iraqi men chant slogans outside of an army recruiting center to volunteer for military service June 12 in Baghdad.Iraqi men chant slogans outside of an army recruiting center to volunteer for military service June 12 in Baghdad.
Kurdish Peshmerga forces, along with Iraqi special forces, deploy their troops and armored vehicles outside of Kirkuk, Iraq, on June 12.Kurdish Peshmerga forces, along with Iraqi special forces, deploy their troops and armored vehicles outside of Kirkuk, Iraq, on June 12.
Children stand next to a burnt vehicle during clashes between Iraqi security forces and ISIS militants in Mosul on Tuesday, June 10.Children stand next to a burnt vehicle during clashes between Iraqi security forces and ISIS militants in Mosul on Tuesday, June 10.
Civilians from Mosul escape to a refugee camp near Irbil, Iraq, on June 10. Civilians from Mosul escape to a refugee camp near Irbil, Iraq, on June 10.
Iraqis fleeing the violence wait in their vehicles at a Kurdish checkpoint in Aski Kalak on June 10.Iraqis fleeing the violence wait in their vehicles at a Kurdish checkpoint in Aski Kalak on June 10.
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Photos: Iraq under siegePhotos: Iraq under siege

ISIS includes mostly Sunni militants who want to create an Islamic state across Sunni areas of Iraq and Syria. In the towns it controls in Syria, it has imposed Sharia law. Women must be covered, music is prohibited, girls and boys must not mingle at school. The group's tactics are so ruthless even al Qaeda has distanced itself. For example, ISIS kidnapped more than 140 Kurdish schoolboys in Syria last month and forced them to take daily lessons in radical Islamic theory, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a London-based monitoring group.

The militant group was born in Iraq, initially called the Islamic State of Iraq, an umbrella organization headed by al Qaeda. The group's leader, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, served four years in a U.S. prison camp for insurgents, at Bucca in southern Iraq. He was released in 2009. The Islamic State in Iraq relocated to Syria and eventually became known by its new name, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

Read: What is ISIS?

Read: Some Westerners have rallied to join ISIS

Read: See terrifying execution images in Iraq

Is ISIS capable of getting what it wants?

Regrouping and strengthening in Syria, ISIS became well-financed and highly organized. Today, the group has grown large enough to divide the entire region along sectarian lines, experts say.

ISIS has produced and attracted more jihadists and foreign fighters than the war in Iraq ever did. It has more suicide bombers at its disposal, more heavy weaponry and vehicles and more money than any other terrorist organization in the world.

Iraq's ethnic divide Iraq's ethnic divide
Iraq's ethnic divideIraq's ethnic divide

It also has launched an intensive and sophisticated media campaign with flashy videos directed at Westerners, enticing them to join the fight. ISIS has also employed a classic guerilla warfare tactic -- the militants live among civilians. It would be difficult to target these militants in general strikes without injuring or killing innocent people.

Read: How ISIS became one of the richest militant groups ever

Why would Syria reportedly bomb Iraq now?

Bashar al-Assad's regime knows where ISIS bases are inside Syria, but its response to ISIS has been fairly muted for months.

The existence of ISIS has helped to justify the Syrian government's often-used line that it is fighting "terrorists," and opposition activists have long accused the regime of allowing the group to operate and grow, pointing to the government's constant barrel bombing of civilian neighborhoods in places such as Aleppo, while ISIS positions remain largely untargeted.

Life under ISIS rule in Iraq
Old tanks defend Baghdad against ISIS
Maliki changes tune on unity government

But since the militant group has taken over large parts of northern Iraq recently, Syria has intensified its targeted campaign of ISIS positions, particularly in Raqqa, Syria, where ISIS has operated its headquarters for some time.

Damascus denies bombing positions in Iraq, but several sources, including an eyewitness and the head of the Anbar provincial council, said Syrian warplanes launched this week's strikes. CNN is seeking a response from the Syrian government.

It's unlikely al-Assad anticipated that ISIS would achieve such impressive and significant victories in Iraq. The only weapon Syrians have in the border area is air power; Syrian ground forces pulled out long ago. Bombing Iraq now serves to clip ISIS' wings a little.

Map: Where ISIS has taken control in Iraq

How are the Iraqi and Syrian conflicts linked?

Under Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, the Iraqi government has gradually become closer to the Syrian regime. They share allies such as Iran and Hezbollah and enemies such as al Qaeda, ISIS, Sunni extremists and Saudi Arabia, too. The old colonial borders in the region are disappearing, and a conflict is emerging that is more Sunni versus Shiite.

Al-Maliki, some experts said, stoked that sectarian tension even more in a speech Wednesday in which the Shiite leader slammed Sunnis. He blamed his political rivals for "coordinating" the crisis in Iraq and accused Sunnis of collaborating with militants.

See: Al-Maliki changes tune on unity government

What are the Iraq military's shortcomings?

Iraq is using its air force -- what's left of it -- to fight back against ISIS. Iraq has initiated airstrikes, but targeting the group means putting a scope on constantly moving targets. ISIS uses pickups, not tanks. Without precise intelligence from the ground, battling ISIS is tough.

And it's critical to remember that Iraq lost virtually all its air power with the 2003 U.S. invasion.

The Iraqi army crumbled in the face of ISIS' advances. The governor of Kirkuk told CNN that the Iraq force is a "checkpoint army," meaning that it is able to set up and run checkpoints but isn't sophisticated enough to fight ISIS cells. The Iraqi army also tends to use a counterproductive strategy of rounding up individuals as a method of control, aggravating the local population. Finally, the Iraqi military is up against a terror organization more powerful than anything that the U.S. military was battling and struggled to overcome.

Why has U.S. air power not been used against ISIS in Iraq?

Many experts believe that U.S. airstrikes in Iraq are far too risky and might not deliver the results the United States wants.

Again, consider that ISIS is mixed among the civilian population. Airstrikes may kill innocent people.

And there are logistical questions that have to be answered. Where would the air power come from? Bases in Turkey perhaps? Would Turkey give its green light?

Also, some in Iraq perceive that the United States put al-Maliki in power and supported his regime for years, and U.S. interference with air power might not be welcomed. The United States has to worry about Iran, too. U.S. strikes in Iraq could undermine progress Iran and the United States have made on the issue of nuclear weapons.

Also, ISIS is not the only group fighting to gain control of Iraq. Sunni insurgent groups that were active during the U.S.-led invasion have also joined in the battle. Sunni tribal leaders all oppose al-Maliki and view him and his Shiite-dominated government as a bigger threat to the country than ISIS.

Members of insurgent groups not aligned with ISIS could be killed, possibly creating a new set of enemies.

Any U.S. airstrikes in Iraq could further deepen the divide if there's a perception the action was done to bolster al-Maliki's government. It could also further alienate Sunni groups whose support eventually will be needed for any sort of political process to succeed in the country.

Read: Obama says military advisers, not troops, going to Iraq

Op-ed: How ISIS threatens the wider world

CNN's Nic Robertson, Mohammed Tawfeeq and Nick Paton Walsh contributed to this report.

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