Ukrainian seamen stand guard on the Ukrainian Navy ship Slavutich in the harbor of Sevastopol, Ukraine, on Monday, March 3. 
Oleg, a Ukrainian soldier at the Belbek military base in Lubimovka, Ukraine, kisses his girlfriend Svetlana through the gates of the base entrance on March 3. Tensions are high at the base, where Ukrainian soldiers were standing guard inside the building while alleged Russian gunmen were standing guard outside the gates. 
Armed men in military uniform walk outside a Ukrainian military unit near Simferopol, Ukraine, on Sunday, March 2. Hundreds of armed men in trucks and armored vehicles surrounded the Ukrainian base Sunday in Crimea, blocking its soldiers from leaving. 
Soldiers walk outside a Ukrainian military base in Perevalne, Ukraine, as a local resident waves a Russian flag March 2. 
Demonstrators shout during a rally in Kiev's Independence Square on March 2. 
Ukrainian soldiers, left, and unidentified gunmen, right, stand at the gate of an infantry base in Perevalnoye, Ukraine, on March 2. 
Ukrainian soldiers guard a gate of an infantry base in Perevalnoye on March 2. 
A woman cries during a rally in Independence Square on March 2. 
Protesters hold flags of the United States, Germany and Italy during a rally in Independence Square on March 2. 
People attend a morning prayer service at Independence Square on March 2. 
Heavily armed troops, displaying no identifying insignia and who were mingling with local pro-Russian militants, stand guard outside a local government building in Simferopol, Ukraine, on March 2. 
A woman waits in front of unidentified men in military fatigues who were blocking a base of the Ukrainian frontier guard unit in Balaklava, Ukraine, on Saturday, March 1. 
U.S. President Barack Obama, in the Oval Office of the White House, talks on the phone March 1 with Russian President Vladimir Putin. 
Troops stand guard in Balaklava on March 1. 
Heavily armed soldiers displaying no identifying insignia maintain watch in Simferopol, Ukraine, on March 1. 
People gather around the coffin of a man who was killed during clashes with riot police in Independence Square. 
Pro-Russian activists hold Russian flags during a rally in the center of Donetsk, Ukraine, on March 1. 
Pro-Russian activists clash with Maidan supporters as they storm the regional government building in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on March 1. 
A protester stands at a memorial March 1 for the people killed in clashes at Independence Square. 
Armed men patrol outside the Simferopol International Airport in Ukraine's Crimea region on Friday, February 28. Simferopol is the regional capital. 
An image provided to CNN by a local resident shows Russian tanks on the move in Sevastopol, Ukraine. 
Russian troops block a road February 28 toward the military airport in Sevastopol, Ukraine. The Russian Black Sea Fleet is based at the port city of Sevastopol. 
Armed men stand guard in front of a building near the Simferopol airport on February 28. 
An armed man wearing no identifying insignia patrols outside Simferopol International Airport on February 28. 
Police stand guard outside the Crimea regional parliament building Thursday, February 27, in Simferopol. Armed men seized the regional government administration building and parliament in Crimea. 
Police intervene as Russian supporters gather in front of the parliament building in Simferopol on February 27. 
A man adds fuel to a fire at a barricade in Independence Square on February 27. Dozens of people were killed last week during clashes between security forces and protesters. 
Pro-Russia demonstrators wave Russian and Crimean flags in front of a local government building in Simferopol on February 27. 
Barricades in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 27 hold a banner that reads: "Crimea Russia." There's a broad divide between those who support the pro-Western developments in Kiev and those who back Russia's continued influence in Crimea and across Ukraine. 
Protesters stand in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 27. Tensions have simmered in the Crimea region since the Ukrainian president's ouster. 
Protesters in support of the president's ouster rally in Independence Square, which has been the center of opposition, on Wednesday, February 26. 
Security forces stand guard during clashes between opposing sides in front of Crimea's parliament building in Simferopol on February 26. 
Pro-Russian demonstrators, right, clash with anti-Russian protesters in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 26. 
A police officer gets pulled into a crowd of Crimean Tatars in Simferopol on February 26. The Tatars, an ethnic minority group deported during the Stalin era, is rallying in support of Ukraine's interim government. 
A man places flowers at a barricade near Independence Square on February 26. 
On February 26 in Kiev, A woman holds a photograph of a protester killed during the height of tensions. 
Police guard a government building in Donetsk on February 26. 
Protesters remove a fence that surrounds Ukraine's parliament in Kiev on February 26. 
People sing the Ukrainian national anthem at Independence Square on Monday, February 24. 
Gas masks used by protesters sit next to a barricade in Independence Square on February 24. 
A woman cries February 24 near a memorial for the people killed in Kiev. 
People wave a large Ukrainian flag in Independence Square on Sunday, February 23. 
Two pro-government supporters are made to pray February 23 in front of a shrine to dead anti-government protesters. 
A man and his daughter lay flowers at a memorial for protesters killed in Independence Square. 
Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko speaks at Independence Square on Saturday, February 22, hours after being released from prison. Tymoshenko, considered a hero of a 2004 revolution against Yanukovych, was released after 2½ years behind bars. 
Tymoshenko is greeted by supporters shortly after being freed from prison in Kharkiv on February 22. 
A protester guards the entrance to Yanukovych's abandoned residence outside Kiev on February 22. 
Anti-government protesters guard the streets next to the presidential offices in Kiev on February 22. 
Anti-government protesters drive a military vehicle in Independence Square on February 22. Many protesters said they wouldn't leave the square until Yanukovych resigned. 
Ukrainian lawmakers argue during a session of Parliament on Friday, February 21. 
Men in Kiev carry a casket containing the body of a protester killed in clashes with police. 
Protesters cheer after news of an agreement between the opposing sides in Kiev on February 21. 
- Agnia Grigas: Vladimir Putin has made effective use of his "compatriot" policy
- It enables Russia to gain territory in areas where ethnic Russians and Russian speakers live
- She says Crimea is a place where Russia can claim it was acting for "compatriots"
- Grigas: Other nations in Russia's neighborhood should pay attention
Editor's note: Agnia Grigas has served as an adviser in the Lithuanian government and holds a doctorate in international relations from the University of Oxford. Grigas, who consults for multinational corporations investing in emerging markets, is the author of "The Politics of Energy and Memory between the Baltic States and Russia" (Ashgate 2013).
(CNN) -- With the Russian military having effectively taken control of Crimea, a permanent division of Ukraine is becoming increasingly likely. Russian President Vladimir Putin's request to the Russian Senate to approve military intervention in Ukraine in order to "protect citizens of Russia" highlights how once seemingly innocuous "compatriot policies" are being used by Moscow to justify military efforts to regain Crimea for Russia.
Russia's compatriot policies are officially meant to protect ethnic Russians living in nearby countries, but have served Russia's territorial expansionism in the past.
In fact these compatriot policies can be viewed as part of Putin's new military doctrine that seeks territorial gains in the former Soviet republics, particularly where there is a receptive population of Russian speakers.
The compatriot policies, outlined in Russia's "National Security Strategy to 2020," were introduced in 2000 during Putin's first presidential term. They call for the political, economic and, potentially, military protection of the rights and interests of Russian citizens and ethnic Russians living abroad.
An effective tactic associated with the policies is to give Russian citizenship to ethnic Russians in foreign states so as to better protect their interests. Tellingly, Russia's national security strategy emphasizes that compatriots are an important tool for achieving Russia's foreign policy aims.
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Putin, Obama disagree on Ukraine crisis Looking at Russia's neighborhood, one can already see how compatriot policy has assisted Russia's foreign policy and territorial expansion. Prior to the Georgian-Russian war in 2008, Georgia was seeking closer relations with the West and distancing itself from Russia (in a very similar vein to Ukraine today).
Meanwhile Moscow was handing out citizenship to the inhabitants of the separatist Georgian territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Thus the "protection of Russian citizens" became one of Russia's main motives for going to war with Georgia in 2008 and securing South Ossetia and Abkhazia as Russian protectorates.
But Ukraine does not have to look to the Caucasus to see compatriot policy in action. On Ukraine's southwestern border, Transnistria is a separatist territory of Moldova which has also become effectively a Russian military-controlled territory as the Kremlin sought to "protect" the Russian speakers and eventually Russian citizens.
Farther afield, Russia has also taken great pains to cultivate the loyalty of its compatriots in the Baltic states, particularly in Estonia and Latvia. Well aware of Russia's compatriot tactics, Lithuania, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the U.N. Security Council, called an urgent meeting and also invoked the NATO treaty on Ukraine.
For Moscow, Crimea is much more important than South Ossetia, Abkhazia or Transnistria. First, Crimea became Ukrainian territory only in 1954 when the Soviet Union's leader Nikita Khrushchev gave it to Kiev under the overall authority of the Soviet Union. Its loss after the disintegration of the Soviet Union was a major blow to leaders in Moscow.
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Ethnic Russians show support for Moscow 
NATO calls emergency meeting on Ukraine Second, Sevastopol, one of Crimea's major cities, serves as the naval base for Russia's Black Sea fleet. It is a prized territory that allows the Russian navy direct access to the Mediterranean.
Crimea is a particularly soft target for Russia's compatriot policies. Unlike Western Ukraine, where people speak Ukrainian, or even Eastern Ukraine, which is Russian speaking, Crimea is predominantly ethnically Russian.
With Crimea's Russians protesting the turn of events in Kiev's Independence Square and expressing their solidarity with Moscow, a secessionist movement is almost inevitable. Already, the Crimean parliament announced that it would hold a referendum to increase the peninsula's autonomy from Ukraine and installed a pro-Russian prime minister.
While Crimea's fate seems almost certain to follow those of South Ossetia, Abkhazia or Transnistria, other states near Russia that also have significant populations of Russian speakers should be vigilant.
Putin's compatriot doctrine is here to stay. Thus it is no wonder Georgia will likely be urgently seeking integration with NATO and the EU. Ukraine should stabilize its government and consider following suit.
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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Agnia Grigas.
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