- Andrew Hammond: Ukraine is Europe's biggest geopolitical crisis for two decades
- Russia is drafting counter-proposals to a U.S. plan for a negotiated solution, he says
- Hammond: The use of analogies by politicians in international crises is commonplace
- The most widely used historical analogy is that of Munich and Nazi Germany, he writes
Editor's note: Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS, an international affairs research center at the London School of Economics, and a former UK Government Special Adviser. The views expressed are solely those of the author. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely his.
(CNN) -- Ukraine's Foreign Mnister Andrii Deshchytsya on Monday asserted that the situation in his country "is almost like ... a war." With Russian forces effectively having taken control of Crimea, this is Europe's biggest geopolitical crisis for at least two decades.
Russia is currently drafting counter-proposals to a U.S. plan for a negotiated solution. This will seek to challenge Washington's support for the new government in Kiev that Moscow believes was installed in a coup and has plunged a significant part of the country into chaos.
From Washington's perspective, Russian troops (up to 25,000 would normally be stationed in Crimea, according to Russian state media, but it's unclear how many are in the region now. Ukrainian authorities have said more Russian soldiers have come into Crimea) must pull back from Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is also attempting to secure support for the placement of international monitors, and has also called for Moscow to use its influence to stop the March 16 referendum in Crimea (which was annexed into the Ukraine in 1956 by Soviet leader Nikita Khruschev) on whether it should join the Russian Federation. In seeking to frame Russia's actions in Crimea, various historical analogies with Nazi Germany have been made, including last week by former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
The use of analogies by politicians in international crises is commonplace. In the complexity and uncertainty of fast moving day-to-day events, policymakers often seek to draw what they perceive as key lessons of the past in seeking to guide and provide rationales for their actions.
Crimean independence up for a vote 
Rival nations, hand-in-hand 
Cossacks stand guard at Crimea's regional parliament building in Simferopol, Ukraine, on Wednesday, March 12. Pro-Russian forces have taken control of Ukraine's autonomous Crimean region, prompting criticism from the West and Ukrainian interim government. Security measures are tightening around Crimea's capital as the pro-Russian regional government prepares to hold a referendum to break away from Ukraine. The standoff has revived concerns of a return to Cold War relations. 
Soldiers patrol aboard the Ukrainian ship Slavutich in the harbor of Sevastopol, Ukraine, on Tuesday, March 11. 
Ukrainian naval officers board a boat in front of the Russian minesweeper Turbinist in Sevastopol's harbor on March 11. 
People shout slogans during a pro-Russia rally in Donetsk, Ukraine, on Sunday, March 9. 
Ukrainian police detain a demonstrator during a pro-Russian rally in Donetsk on March 9. 
Pro-Russia protesters remove a Ukrainian flag from a flagpole taken from a government building in Donetsk on March 9. 
Cossacks and other pro-Russian forces stand guard outside a government building in Simferopol, Ukraine, Crimea's capital, on Saturday, March 8. 
Ukrainian soldiers load armored personnel carriers into boxcars in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv on March 8. 
Armed men believed to be Russian military march in the village outside Simferopol on Friday, March 7. 
Pro-Russia protesters demonstrate outside the Belbek Air Base outside Sevastopol, Ukraine, on Thursday, March 6. 
A Ukrainian navy officer looks at the scuttled, decommissioned Russian vessel Ochakov from the Black Sea shore outside the town of Myrnyi, Ukraine, on March 6. Russian naval personnel scuttled the ship, blockading access for five Ukrainian naval vessels. 
A member of the Russian military patrols around Perevalne, Ukraine, on March 6. 
Servicemen guard a checkpoint at a Ukrainian Navy base in Perevalnoe, Crimea, on March 6. 
Ukrainian troops guard the Belbek air base outside Sevastopol, Ukraine, on March 6. 
A woman walks past barricades on March 6 that were set up by anti-government protesters in Kiev's Independence Square. 
A sailor guards the Ukrainian Navy ship Slavutych in the Bay of Sevastopol on Wednesday, March 5. 
People wait in line for food distribution in Independence Square on March 5. 
Ukrainian sailors carry meat to their vessel in the Sevastopol harbor on March 5. 
Riot police stand at the entrance of a regional administrative building during a rally in Donetsk, Ukraine, on March 5. 
A Ukrainian police officer gives instructions to members of the media in front of the business class lounge of the Simferopol airport on March 5. 
Pro-Russia demonstrators wave a Russian flag after storming a regional administrative building in Donetsk on March 5. 
Demonstrators break a police barrier as they storm a regional administrative building in Donetsk on March 5. 
Ukrainian military recruits line up to receive instructions in Kiev's Independence Square on Tuesday, March 4. 
People stand on the Ukrainian Navy ship Slavutich while it's at harbor in Sevastopol on March 4. Mattresses were placed over the side of the ship to hinder any attempted assault. 
Ukrainian troops watch as a Russian navy ship blocks the entrance of the Ukrainian navy base in Sevastopol on March 4. 
A woman photographs pro-Russian soldiers guarding Ukraine's infantry base in Perevalnoye, Ukraine, on March 4. 
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, wearing a blue scarf, visits a shrine March 4 for the people who were killed during anti-government protests in Kiev last month. 
Yuli Mamchun, the commander of the Ukrainian military garrison at the Belbek air base near Sevastopol, salutes on March 4. 
Russian soldiers stand guard at the Belbek air base on March 4. 
Ukrainian military members march at the Belbek air base on March 4. 
Russian soldiers fire warning shots to keep back Ukrainian military members at the Belbek air base on March 4. 
A Ukrainian airman puts the Ukrainian national flag over the gate of the Belbek air base as they guard what's left under their control on March 4. 
Russian soldiers aim a grenade launcher and machine gun as they guard positions at the Belbek air base on March 4. 
Ukrainian seamen stand guard on the Ukrainian navy ship Slavutich in the Sevastopol harbor on Monday, March 3. 
Oleg, a Ukrainian soldier, kisses his girlfriend, Svetlana, through the gates of the Belbek base entrance on March 3. Tensions are high at the base, where Ukrainian soldiers were standing guard inside the building while alleged Russian gunmen were standing guard outside the gates. 
Wives of Ukrainian soldiers walk past Russian soldiers to visit their husbands guarding a military base in Perevalnoye on March 3. 
A Russian soldier guards an area outside Ukraine's military base in the village of Perevalnoye on March 3. 
A sailor looks out a window near the entrance to the Ukrainian navy headquarters in Sevastopol on March 3. 
Armed men in military uniform walk outside a Ukrainian military unit near Simferopol on Sunday, March 2. Hundreds of armed men in trucks and armored vehicles surrounded the Ukrainian base Sunday in Crimea, blocking its soldiers from leaving. 
Soldiers walk outside a Ukrainian military base in Perevalne, Ukraine, as a local resident waves a Russian flag March 2. 
Demonstrators shout during a rally in Kiev's Independence Square on March 2. 
Ukrainian soldiers, left, and unidentified gunmen, right, stand at the gate of an infantry base in Perevalnoye on March 2. 
Ukrainian soldiers guard a gate of an infantry base in Perevalnoye on March 2. 
A woman cries during a rally in Independence Square on March 2. 
Protesters hold flags of the United States, Germany and Italy during a rally in Independence Square on March 2. 
People attend a morning prayer service at Independence Square on March 2. 
A soldier and a truck driver unload bread outside the Ukranian navy headquarters in Sevastopol, Ukraine, on March 2. 
Heavily armed troops, displaying no identifying insignia and who were mingling with local pro-Russian militants, stand guard outside a local government building in Simferopol, Ukraine, on March 2. 
A woman waits in front of unidentified men in military fatigues who were blocking a base of the Ukrainian frontier guard unit in Balaklava, Ukraine, on Saturday, March 1. 
U.S. President Barack Obama, in the Oval Office of the White House, talks on the phone March 1 with Russian President Vladimir Putin. 
Troops stand guard in Balaklava on March 1. 
Heavily armed soldiers displaying no identifying insignia maintain watch in Simferopol, Ukraine, on March 1. 
People gather around the coffin of a man who was killed during clashes with riot police in Independence Square. 
Pro-Russian activists hold Russian flags during a rally in the center of Donetsk, Ukraine, on March 1. 
Pro-Russian activists clash with Maidan supporters as they storm the regional government building in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on March 1. 
A protester stands at a memorial March 1 for the people killed in clashes at Independence Square. 
Armed men patrol outside the Simferopol International Airport in Ukraine's Crimea region on Friday, February 28. Simferopol is the regional capital. 
An image provided to CNN by a local resident shows Russian tanks on the move in Sevastopol, Ukraine. 
Russian troops block a road February 28 toward the military airport in Sevastopol, Ukraine. The Russian Black Sea Fleet is based at the port city of Sevastopol. 
Armed men stand guard in front of a building near the Simferopol airport on February 28. 
An armed man wearing no identifying insignia patrols outside Simferopol International Airport on February 28. 
Police stand guard outside the Crimea regional parliament building Thursday, February 27, in Simferopol. Armed men seized the regional government administration building and parliament in Crimea. 
Police intervene as Russian supporters gather in front of the parliament building in Simferopol on February 27. 
A man adds fuel to a fire at a barricade in Independence Square on February 27. Dozens of people were killed last week during clashes between security forces and protesters. 
Pro-Russia demonstrators wave Russian and Crimean flags in front of a local government building in Simferopol on February 27. 
Barricades in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 27 hold a banner that reads: "Crimea Russia." There's a broad divide between those who support the pro-Western developments in Kiev and those who back Russia's continued influence in Crimea and across Ukraine. 
Protesters stand in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 27. Tensions have simmered in the Crimea region since the Ukrainian president's ouster. 
Protesters in support of the president's ouster rally in Independence Square, which has been the center of opposition, on Wednesday, February 26. 
Security forces stand guard during clashes between opposing sides in front of Crimea's parliament building in Simferopol on February 26. 
Pro-Russian demonstrators, right, clash with anti-Russian protesters in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 26. 
A police officer gets pulled into a crowd of Crimean Tatars in Simferopol on February 26. The Tatars, an ethnic minority group deported during the Stalin era, is rallying in support of Ukraine's interim government. 
A man places flowers at a barricade near Independence Square on February 26. 
On February 26 in Kiev, A woman holds a photograph of a protester killed during the height of tensions. 
Police guard a government building in Donetsk on February 26. 
Protesters remove a fence that surrounds Ukraine's parliament in Kiev on February 26. 
People sing the Ukrainian national anthem at Independence Square on Monday, February 24. 
Gas masks used by protesters sit next to a barricade in Independence Square on February 24. 
A woman cries February 24 near a memorial for the people killed in Kiev. 
People wave a large Ukrainian flag in Independence Square on Sunday, February 23. 
Two pro-government supporters are made to pray February 23 in front of a shrine to dead anti-government protesters. 
A man and his daughter lay flowers at a memorial for protesters killed in Independence Square. 
Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko speaks at Independence Square on Saturday, February 22, hours after being released from prison. Tymoshenko, considered a hero of a 2004 revolution against Yanukovych, was released after 2½ years behind bars. 
Tymoshenko is greeted by supporters shortly after being freed from prison in Kharkiv on February 22. 
A protester guards the entrance to Yanukovych's abandoned residence outside Kiev on February 22. 
Anti-government protesters guard the streets next to the presidential offices in Kiev on February 22. 
Anti-government protesters drive a military vehicle in Independence Square on February 22. Many protesters said they wouldn't leave the square until Yanukovych resigned. 
Ukrainian lawmakers argue during a session of Parliament on Friday, February 21. 
Men in Kiev carry a casket containing the body of a protester killed in clashes with police. 
Protesters cheer after news of an agreement between the opposing sides in Kiev on February 21. 
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